via Khmer NZ
New report provides detailed analysis of the Energy and Utilities market
Published on July 23, 2010
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
The new Cambodia Power Report from we forecast that the country will account for just 0.04% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a slight theoretical supply surplus that may eventually provide the basis for exports to neighbouring countries. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Cambodia's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 1.8TWh, or 0.03% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 0.04% of thermal generation in the region.
For Cambodia, direct burning of wood and other organic fuels accounts for an estimated 73% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 26%. Hydro makes a very small contribution, while coal and gas do not yet feature in the energy mix. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Cambodia's estimated 2009 market share of 0.15% is set to rise to 0.18% by 2014. Cambodia's hydro-electric demand is forecast to reach 0.9TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising to 0.07% over the period. Cambodia is 16th and last, behind even Taiwan, in the expanded and updated Power Business Environment Ratings, due largely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, offset by low scores in several other categories. It has the long-term potential to overtake Taiwan and even Singapore, however.
We forecast Cambodian real GDP growth averaging 6.1% a year in 2010-2014, with the 2010 assumption being an increase of 4.8%. The population is expected to expand from 14.2mn to 15.1mn by 2014, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase 67% and 69% respectively. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 1.7TWh in 2009 to 3.0TWh in 2014, providing a slight theoretical supply surplus if generation grows at no less than our assumed average annual rate of 17.0%. There is, however, a risk of electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.
In 2010-2019 we are forecasting an increase in Cambodian electricity generation of 414.2%, which is top of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 159.2% in 2014-2019, up from 98.4% in 2010- 2014. PED growth in 2014-2019 is set to rise from the expected 2010-2014 level of 41.2%, reaching 53.9% and representing 117.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro consumption is expected to rise by 3,550% through 2010-2019 (from a very low base), with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 116% over the same period. More detailed long-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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