Mon, Jan 18, 2010
The Nation/Asia News Network
via CAAI News Media
Political tensions are streaming towards a climax on February 10 with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra pushed into a corner by evidence of alleged abuse of power in the recently concluded Bt76-billion asset seizure trial, sources said yesterday.
The verdict to be delivered by the Supreme Court on February 26 will centre on how he kept secret control of his business empire and how it benefited from his government's policies. The ruling will either break his back or relieve him of his financial predicament.
"The highlight of the political battle will take place during that critical juncture on February 10. It's costly to mobilise local forces, so Thaksin has to time it carefully. Besides, the Supreme Court's marking the date of its reading out the verdict to February 26 has hurt his momentum because he had thought the verdict would be handed down in January," a political source said.
"He can win over the case only by toppling the Abhisit government or getting support from a military intervention."
BANKING ON NUMBER 10
A report of Manager Online last month said Thaksin, who attended Class 10 of the military cadet school, is highly superstitious and believes his stars are guiding him to bank his political fortune on the number 10.
Last year Thaksin launched his red shirt rally aimed at ousting the Abhisit government on November 28 (2+8=10) before stretching it out to December 10, which was Constitution Day. The rally, which took place during the celebration of His Majesty the King's birthday, went on in a low-key fashion at Democracy Monument.
Political sources said there were attempts on December 28 to create turmoil in Bangkok but the plan did not work out, amid rumours that the capital could be a target of some bomb attacks while revellers joined the countdown to the New Year.
Unperturbed, Thaksin advanced his political fight into the "magical" year of 2010, his do-or-die year, with stronger determination than ever. On January 10 - the number 10 yet again - Thaksin ordered his red-shirt supporters to travel all the way to Khao Yai Thiang in Nakhon Ratchasima to launch a protest against former prime minister Surayud Chulanont, who is also a member of the Privy Council.
Surayud has been accused of building his resort home on protected forestland in Khao Yai Thiang, a recurring theme that hurts his political stature. This case is being investigated by the Forestry Department, which is also launching a nationwide probe into private encroachment of public land and parks.
But the red shirts' one-day protest at Khao Yai Thiang did not turn violent.
Political sources said the battle is now scheduled for February 10 when Thaksin hopes to launch his last campaign to try to reclaim his money, partially or in full.
Payap, the younger brother of Thaksin, warned last week that stripping Thaksin of his fortune would not be a good way out for the country.
"He did not know that he did anything wrong. But then if you confiscate his assets, his family and relatives would fall deep into trouble," Payap said in defence of his brother.
"Justice must be looked at from the same angle. You have to be able to accept it and I also have to be able to accept it. You just can't draw your own conclusion and your own judgement alone."
Payap said Thaksin's assets of Bt76 billion should be divided into portions. If he were found guilty of any wrongdoings, then he could be fined just for those wrongdoings without losing all of his money, he said.
"Otherwise, the whole country would plunge into complete chaos. The situation is now already very delicate," Payap warned.
A Government House source said it was highly likely that Thaksin would see all his wealth forfeited because of
?his alleged political corruption.
"It is very clear that the conversions of the telecom concessions to favour Shin Corp would be evidence strong enough to repossess Thaksin's assets," he said.
Looking back at the stock price movements of Shin Corp and its cellular subsidiary Advanced Info Service (AIS), it is clear that the stock prices moved up significantly whenever good news came out in support of their business operations.
On May 15, 2001, revenue sharing with TOT for the pre-paid mobile phone service of concession holder AIS was reduced from 25 per cent to 20 per cent during the first year of Thaksin's premiership. AIS' stock price surged from Bt326 in January to Bt526 on November 5 of that year.
On September 20, 2002 a concession was amended so that TOT would have to help shoulder the roaming cost for AIS. On September 4, Shin Corp's stock stood at Bt20 following the reduction of par value to Bt1 apiece. In August 2001, the stock was trading at Bt11-Bt12. It bottomed out at Bt9.90 on September 25, 2001.
OFF-SHORE ACCOUNTS
During this time, UBS of Singapore was believed to be trading stocks in offshore accounts for the Shinawatra clan.
"This is the main reason why they could shift money out overseas," the Government House source said.
On February 11 and November 19, 2003, the Thaksin government introduced a telecom excise tax and awarded a licence for Shin Satellite to launch iPStar. In January 2003, Shin Corp shares were trading at Bt10 apiece. They did not move significantly until August 2003 when the stock price hit Bt20. On November 19, 2003, Shin Corp's stock price climbed to Bt26.75 on news that iPStar got a favourable concession. At the end of 2003, Shin Corp closed at Bt39.50.
In 2004, the Thaksin government approved Bt4 billion in Exim Bank soft loans to Burma. Shin Corp peaked at Bt43 in January 2004 before weakening to Bt30.50 in May.
On January 23, 2006, the Shinawatra family sold off its 49-per-cent stake in Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore for US$1.88 billion or Bt73 billion, or Bt49.25 a share, for maximum gain.
On that same day, the Thai Telecommunication Act of 2006 became effective, raising the limit on foreign holdings in telecom companies to 49 per cent.
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