A Sharp Increase In Foreign Corn Supplies Projected This Month

via CAAI News Media

03/12/2010

Global corn supplies forecast for 2009/10 are increased 6.4 million tons this month to 950.1 million. Production and trade revisions for 2008/09 boost 2009/10 world beginning stocks 0.5 million tons to 146.4 million. World corn production forecast for 2009/10 is increased 5.9 million tons to a record 803.7 million, exceeding 800 million for the first time, despite a small decline in the U.S. crop.

Global coarse grain production is up less than the increase in corn because of a 1.2-million-ton reduction in barley production and small declines for mixed grain and rye in the EU. Still, world coarse grain production in 2009/10 is now projected to exceed 1.1 billion tons and nearly match the 2008/09 record.

Growing conditions for corn across the Southern Hemisphere have been generally very favorable, with Argentina and South Africa both receiving above-normal precipitation and mostly moderate temperatures during crucial reproductive growth stages. The above-normal rain in Argentina is not surprising because the ongoing El Nino condition in the Pacific is associated with heavy rain in Argentina’s main corn region. However, El Nino is also associated with drought in the Maiz Triangle of South Africa, yet actual temperatures and precipitation have been exceptionally favorable.

Argentina’s corn production is forecast up 3.8 million tons this month to 21.0 million. With the good rains, late planting was more extensive than expected, boosting area harvested 0.35 million hectares to 2.5 million. Harvesting has just begun, and crop conditions are generally reported to be good to excellent. Current conditions support the projected record 8.4 tons per hectare average yield. The areas that have received excessive rains are well enough drained to limit damage. Favorable conditions have also led to a larger-than-expected area planted to sorghum, boosting production prospects 0.5 million tons to 3.8 million. However, for barley, heavy rains late in the growing season and during harvest reduced yields and damaged quality, cutting production 0.4 million tons to 1.2 million. Additionally, a reassessment of corn supply and use for 2008/09 in Argentina, as the local marketing year draws to a close, reveals that corn production must have been significantly larger than previously estimated despite the severe drought. Corn area for 2008/09 is increased 10 percent this month, increasing estimated production 2.4 million tons to 15.0 million.

South Africa had very favorable temperatures and precipitation during January and February 2010, supporting 2009/10 corn crop prospects. However, continued rains are needed during March to support grain fill. South Africa reported revised area, up 5 percent, as seedings exceeded earlier expectations. Moreover, current conditions support above-trend yields, and production is projected up 2.0 million tons this month to 13.5 million tons. This is the largest corn production since the 1980/81 record when area was more than a third larger.

Corn production for 2009/10 was increased 0.3 million tons this month for both Moldova and Cambodia, based on larger reported area. Iran’s corn production is projected up 0.2 million tons due to increased area, while both area and yield combined to boost corn production in the Philippines by a similar amount. Increased yields led to small increases in corn production for Croatia and Saudi Arabia. There are decreases in projected corn production this month due to reduced area for India, down 0.5 million tons, and for Chile, down fractionally. China’s barley production is revised down 0.6 million tons to 2.5 million based on a report from the U.S. Embassy. Mexico’s barley production is cut 0.3 million tons to 0.5 million as dryness cut harvested area and yields.

As more complete information and data about 2008/09 production, trade, and use becomes available, ending stocks are revised, changing supplies for 2009/10. This month there are numerous changes to 2009/10 corn beginning stocks, mostly caused by 2008/09 trade revisions. The largest change is for South Africa, up 0.5 million tons as reduced 2008/09 exports boost stocks. Argentina’s corn stocks are up 0.4 million tons due to increased 2008/09 production, and India’s corn stocks are boosted 0.2 million tons due to lower estimated food use in 2008/09. There are smaller increases in 2009/10 corn beginning stocks this month for the Dominican Republic, Panama, the Philippines, Moldova, Egypt, Yemen, Georgia, Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Revised old-crop production for Iran and increased 2008/09 exports in Paraguay trimmed corn stocks 0.3 million tons each. There are smaller reductions in corn stocks this month for Chile, Syria, Malaysia, Guatemala, Taiwan, and Honduras.