SFGate - San Francisco ChronicleSusan Postlewaite, Chronicle Foreign Service
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Phnom Penh, Cambodia -- Cambodian strongman Hun Sen should easily retain his position as Southeast Asia's longest ruling elected leader in Sunday's national election, most analysts say.
With this nation of 14 million inhabitants benefiting from a revved-up economy, Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party will easily dominate the parliamentary election, polls show.
"Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party represents stability," said University of Cambodia President Kao Kim Hourn.
The nation's major party candidates have campaigned hard in cities and provinces, but even Sam Rainsy, the leader of the strongest of 10 opposition parties, concedes that his party will win no more than 31 of 123 parliamentary seats up for election.
"The other parties don't know how to stay together," said Ahmad Yahya, a former opposition politician who referred to opposition party divisions and is now a member of the Cambodian People's Party.
Although the election appears to be a one-horse race, interest remains high. Eighty-seven percent of eligible voters are registered and voter turnout is expected to be as high as 75 percent, according to a poll by the U.S. funded International Republican Institute. The poll shows that 77 percent say that "Cambodia is moving in the right direction."
In recent years, the economy has averaged double-digit growth, driven largely by an expansion in the garment and tourist industries. Foreign investment is rising and economic growth reached 9.5 percent in 2007. The unemployment rate is 2.5 percent, according to CIA data. Moreover, the nation's first stock exchange is expected to open next year and offshore oil revenues should begin flowing by 2011.
The re-election of Hun Sen to another five-year term will also mean a continuation of Cambodia's increasingly tight relationship with China, some analysts say. China is building a new $30 million government building in the capital, Phnom Penh. A Western diplomat calls it "a symbol of China's putative influence."
Nevertheless, the economic boom has largely failed to reach rural areas and Cambodia is still one of the world's poorest countries with an annual per capita income of $1,800 and 35 percent of the population living below the poverty line, according to CIA data.
Those grim statistics could vastly improve with better governance, most analysts agree. In its annual 2007 report on corruption, Transparency International, a private monitoring group based in Berlin, Cambodia ranked 162 of 179 countries - with 1 being the least corrupt.
The Cambodian People's Party has ruled Cambodia since 1979, after Hun Sen defected from the Khmer Rouge to help Vietnamese forces oust the Maoist regime that had sealed off the country in 1975 and killed an estimated 1.5 million people in an attempt to create a utopian society.
In the past four years, the Cambodian People's Party has strengthened its grip on power with the defection of dozens of opposition lawmakers to its side and internal divisions by its opposition, most notably the United National Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Cooperative Cambodia, or FUNCINPEC.
In recent months, the 57-year-old prime minister has campaigned continuously over state-controlled national television, which airs daily footage of him inaugurating new schools and health clinics, doling out rice and traditional checkered scarves known as kramas to woo the nation's 8.1 million registered voters.
The media saturation of Hun Sen's speeches and activities on Cambodian People's Party-controlled television and limited negative coverage has sparked much criticism.
"The pre-election period is not fair," said Jerome Cheung, director of the U.S.-funded National Democratic Institute.
And just this month, opposition journalist Khim Sambo and his 21-year-old son, Khath Sarin Pheata, were gunned down while driving home from a campaign event - the first killing of a reporter since 2003. Although the government has pledged to find the assassins, Human Rights Watch said the murder "appears to be intended as a message not to engage in opposition politics."
But election campaigning has been less violent than in other years, the information ministry for the first time has allowed national assembly candidates to debate on government-controlled television, and Cambodia enjoys greater press freedom than several of its neighbors, most observers say.
The Sam Rainsy Party, the strongest opposition, has promoted an anti-corruption platform and courted the youth vote. "The new generation expects more," said party leader Sam Rainsy. "They want change."
The royalist party, FUNCINPEC, which had been a minority partner with the Cambodian People's Party for a decade, could come up with no seats Sunday and dissolve, some analysts predict, due to internal divisions.
FUNCINPEC spokesman Ok Socheat predicts the once-powerful party will win at least one seat because Cambodians, whose government is structured as a constitutional monarchy, still favor the royal family. But he warned: "If FUNCINPEC collapses, then maybe the monarchy will collapse."
The Human Rights Party, barely a year old, is expected to win a few seats for its criticism of the nation's virtual one-party state. "We cannot live with the ruling party. It has been 30 years already," said party President Kem Sokha, who has been jailed for past political activities and protected by the U.S. Embassy.
Meanwhile, Hun Sen, who has ruled for 23 years and sometimes refers to himself in the third person, appears confident that he will trounce his opposition Sunday.
"If Hun Sen does anything it is to win. I do everything to win, not to lose," he said during a recent campaign stop.
Hun Sen profile
Hun Sen was born in 1951 to a peasant family along the Mekong River in Kompong Cham province.
He is married to Bun Rany, a former nurse and head of the Cambodian Red Cross. In 1976, they married in a group ceremony organized by the Khmer Rouge.
Hun Sen proved his mettle in strategic warfare by forging an alliance with Vietnam to push the genocidal Khmer Rouge into the jungle in 1979, freeing Cambodia from a regime that had killed an estimated 1.5 million people from starvation, executions, overwork and torture. That same year, Hun Sen became foreign minister of a Vietnamese-installed regime.
In 1985, Hun Sen became prime minister. Between 1993 and 1998, he shared the position with Prince Norodom Ranariddh.
Hun Sen rarely travels to the United States, but made an exception when his oldest son, Hun Manet, graduated from West Point in 1999.
At 57, he often adjusts his glasses during speeches to accommodate his one good eye. The other is made of glass, the result of a wound received while fighting the Khmer Rouge.
Although critics cite his failure to tackle endemic corruption, Hun Sen is widely credited with allowing Cambodia to evolve more quickly than such neighbors as Burma and Laos.
- Susan Postlewaite
Cambodia at the ballot box
1975: The Maoist Khmer Rouge overthrow the Lon Nol government beginning the era of the "Killing Fields."
1979: Vietnamese troops overthrow Khmer Rouge
1980s: Cambodian People's Party (CCP) headed by Hun Sen takes power.
1993: Multi-party democracy is restored. The royal party FUNCINPEC wins a plurality in an election organized by the United Nations. Prince Norodom Ranariddh, son of King Norodom Sihanouk, becomes prime minister.
1997: Hun Sen ousts the prince in a bloody coup to become prime minister.
1998: CPP wins elections; Hun Sen remains as prime minister.
2003: CPP wins elections; Hun Sen begins his third term.
2008: On Sunday, Hun Sen seeks a fourth term as prime minister. More than 13,000 domestic and international observers will monitor 15,000 polling stations. There are 8.1 million registered voters.
Cambodia's major political parties
Cambodian People's Party (CPP) - The CPP has ruled since the fall of the Khmer Rouge. It is expected to win more than two-thirds of the 123 parliamentary seats Sunday.
United National Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Cooperative Cambodia.
(referred to by its French acronym FUNCINPEC) - The royal party received 20.8 percent of the vote in the 2003 elections, but its voter base has eroded due to internal problems, including the ouster of its leader, Prince Norodom Ranariddh. It may dissolve after a poor showing in Sunday's election, some analysts say.
Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) - The NRP was founded in 2006 by Prince Norodom Ranariddh, son of retired King Sihanouk, after he was ousted from FUNCINPEC. He runs the party from Malaysia and may win several seats Sunday.
Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) - The SRP was founded by French-educated Sam Rainsy, who returned to Cambodia in 1992. It is largely funded by Cambodian expatriates in the United States and France and is the leading opposition party. It surpassed FUNCINPEC in the last elections with 22 percent of the vote.
Human Rights Party (HRP) - The HRP was founded last year by human rights activist Kem Sam Sokha. It is expected to win several parliamentary seats.
- Susan Postlewaite
E-mail Susan Postlewaite at foreign@sfchronicle.com
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