via CAAI News Media
Posted by Thanong , Reader : 183
March 10, 2010
The latest assessment from the Abhisit government is that the Red Shirts' attack of Bangkok between March 12-14 or longer will not succeed in toppling the government.
"I don't think this rally will bring about a government downfall. For the military is now in charge. It might come close though," one of my friends in the political scene has just told me.
Bangkok is now living under an atmosphere of fear. My former staff now working in the Silom area called in to ask for consultation. How should she told her boss who would be welcoming the foreign guests staying at the Centara Grand Hotel over the weekend.
I told her to keep it cool. "Just stay in the hotel room with a pair of binoculars and watch the reality show," I said.
She was not impressed.
The Red Shirts' gathering of force is not smooth for the big ambush, however. Another well-informed source told me that the Red Shirts protestors have not got the money they are promised to so the rally might not be as grand. Their leaders just take away too much commission, leaving only the bones for the Red Shirts infrantry.
The other day a younger brother of a big-time politician dug Bt10 million into his pocket to pay for the core leaders of the Red Shirts from the Northeast. They were asking for Bt30 million. Not everybody was happy then. Where had all the money gone?
But the Red Shirts will still try to push hard in spite of the government's imposition of the internal security law between March 11 and 23. At the moment, many of them have already infiltrated into Bangkok. They are sleeping over in the temples in Bangkok. In the day time, they go out to survey the locations and try to get acquainted to the areas. In the evening, they return to the temples to take a rest.
There would certainly be some clashes. The Red Shirts will be subdued by the security forces. But they would try to regroup the rally again in April. The final of the final battle will be delayed until then when former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has no other card left to play. At that time, we may see a reshuffle of the military at the top and the decisive battle.
Things at the Government House have been rather quiet. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva must feel stressful. He is upset that he has to cancel his trip to Australia and New Zealand. Rough and tumble Thai politics is not his style.
Many Democrats MPs are complaining that if Abhisit is not decisive enough, they could all end up in the Opposition bloc again.
Newin Chidchob is wavering. He has run away to London. Maybe he is not sure which side will win. But the other Bhumjai Thai MPs are worried that they are left alone to face the Red Shirts wrath in Bangkok.
The big business groups such as banking, beer or chickens are making some direct contact with red camps -- just in case.