By LESLIE P. NORTON
REMEMBER FRONTIER MARKETS? Those in Pakistan and Vietnam, the high-octane sector of the developing world, promising even swifter growth than the more mature emerging markets?
They've been left in the dust this year as investors swarmed to so-called BRIC funds -- those that trade in shares of Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese companies -- as well as to emerging-markets funds. The MSCI BRICs index has returned 53% in 2009, while emerging markets have returned 43%, and the corresponding frontier markets index, just 4.8%. (The Templeton Frontier Markets Fund is up 23%.)
Says Michael Hartnett, Merrill Lynch's global equity strategist: "Interest in frontier markets has lagged because of liquidity issues." But if enthusiasm about growth in China and almost anywhere outside the developed world gathers steam, expect new interest in frontier markets to jump.
David Wilton, chief investment officer of the International Finance Corp.'s private-equity and investment-funds department, thinks a change is already under way: "The mood has shifted noticeably from February. Now the listed equity markets have recovered, and they're thinking about investing."
The latest market to get attention is Cambodia, where a handful of investors familiar with Vietnam and Thailand are trying to set up funds. Cambodia is very poor, with rampant corruption and crony capitalism. But economic growth is robust, even if the economy is just $8 billion. Douglas Clayton, managing partner of Phnom Penh-based Leopard Capital, has raised just under $30 million and is trying to raise more; sitting on his board is markets commentator and Barron's Roundtable contributor Marc Faber.
Cambodia doesn't have a stock market yet, but Clayton believes it could by year's end. There are numerous foreign-sponsored companies, including banks and cellphone operators, though the economy is largely agricultural. The median age in Cambodia is 21, the lowest in Asia. Clayton reckons that about 70% of the population, which numbers 14 million, wasn't yet born during the horrific regime of the Khmer Rouge, estimated to have killed two million Cambodians.
"Cambodia is back open for business," says Clayton, who is applying for citizenship. "This is a failed state that's back on its feet."
Conservative investors aren't impressed. Says Peter Newell, managing director of Vontobel Asset Management: "We look for a $50 million bottom line, low leverage, high ROA [return on assets]. Can you find that in a frontier market? No. Not even in China, not easily."
David Wilton of the International Finance Corp. agrees: Investing in Cambodia may be, as he delicately puts it, "a wee bit nascent," and there are few deals to support private-equity funds. Still, Wilton concedes that the IFC is very close to seeding a fund to invest there.
REMEMBER FRONTIER MARKETS? Those in Pakistan and Vietnam, the high-octane sector of the developing world, promising even swifter growth than the more mature emerging markets?
They've been left in the dust this year as investors swarmed to so-called BRIC funds -- those that trade in shares of Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese companies -- as well as to emerging-markets funds. The MSCI BRICs index has returned 53% in 2009, while emerging markets have returned 43%, and the corresponding frontier markets index, just 4.8%. (The Templeton Frontier Markets Fund is up 23%.)
Says Michael Hartnett, Merrill Lynch's global equity strategist: "Interest in frontier markets has lagged because of liquidity issues." But if enthusiasm about growth in China and almost anywhere outside the developed world gathers steam, expect new interest in frontier markets to jump.
David Wilton, chief investment officer of the International Finance Corp.'s private-equity and investment-funds department, thinks a change is already under way: "The mood has shifted noticeably from February. Now the listed equity markets have recovered, and they're thinking about investing."
The latest market to get attention is Cambodia, where a handful of investors familiar with Vietnam and Thailand are trying to set up funds. Cambodia is very poor, with rampant corruption and crony capitalism. But economic growth is robust, even if the economy is just $8 billion. Douglas Clayton, managing partner of Phnom Penh-based Leopard Capital, has raised just under $30 million and is trying to raise more; sitting on his board is markets commentator and Barron's Roundtable contributor Marc Faber.
Cambodia doesn't have a stock market yet, but Clayton believes it could by year's end. There are numerous foreign-sponsored companies, including banks and cellphone operators, though the economy is largely agricultural. The median age in Cambodia is 21, the lowest in Asia. Clayton reckons that about 70% of the population, which numbers 14 million, wasn't yet born during the horrific regime of the Khmer Rouge, estimated to have killed two million Cambodians.
"Cambodia is back open for business," says Clayton, who is applying for citizenship. "This is a failed state that's back on its feet."
Conservative investors aren't impressed. Says Peter Newell, managing director of Vontobel Asset Management: "We look for a $50 million bottom line, low leverage, high ROA [return on assets]. Can you find that in a frontier market? No. Not even in China, not easily."
David Wilton of the International Finance Corp. agrees: Investing in Cambodia may be, as he delicately puts it, "a wee bit nascent," and there are few deals to support private-equity funds. Still, Wilton concedes that the IFC is very close to seeding a fund to invest there.
E-mail: leslie.norton@barrons.com
No comments:
Post a Comment