Opposition Democrats tipped to win Japan election

In this photo taken on Aug. 29, 2009, Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, waves during a last minute speech to the public in downtown Tokyo, Japan, during the last day for Parliament's lower house election campaign. Japan voted Sunday Aug. 30, 2009, in parliamentary elections expected to end the ruling conservative party's nearly 54 years in power and give a largely untested opposition a chance to make good on its promises to revive the ailing economy and turn around record-high unemployment.(AP Photo/Itsuo Inouye)

By ERIC TALMADGE, Associated Press Writer

TOKYO – Japan voted Sunday in parliamentary elections expected to end the ruling conservative party's nearly 54 years of power and give a largely untested opposition group a chance to make good on their promises to revive the ailing economy and turn around record-high unemployment.

The vote was seen as a barometer of voter frustrations over the economy, which is in one of its worst slumps since World War II, and a loss of confidence in the ruling Liberal Democrats' ability to tackle tough problems such as the rising national debt and rapidly aging population.

All major polls going into the elections for the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament projected an overwhelming defeat for the Liberal Democrats, who have governed the country since they were founded in 1955 with only one break, a nearly 11-month respite in 1993-1994.

A loss by the Liberal Democrats would open the way for the Democratic Party of Japan, headed by Yukio Hatoyama, to oust Prime Minister Taro Aso and establish a new Cabinet, possibly within the next few weeks. It would also smooth policy debates in parliament, which has been deadlocked since the Democrats and their allies took over the less powerful upper house in 2007.

"The ruling party has betrayed the people over the past four years, driving the economy to the edge of a cliff, building up more than 6 trillion yen ($64.1 billion) in public debt, wasting money, ruining our social security net and widening the gap between the rich and poor," the Democratic Party said in a statement as voting began Sunday.

"We will change Japan," it said.

Polls by major newspapers said Hatoyama's party is likely to win more than 320 seats in the 480-seat lower house, sharply higher than the 112 it held before parliament was dissolved in July. The Democratic Party would need to win only a simple majority of 241 seats in the lower house to assure that it can name the next prime minister.

Officials said voter turnout was high, despite an approaching typhoon, indicating the high level of public interest the hotly contested campaigns have generated.

"We don't know if the Democrats can really make a difference, but we want to give them a chance," Junko Shinoda, 59, a government employee, said after voting at a crowded polling center in downtown Tokyo.

With only two weeks of official campaigning that focused mainly on broadstroke appeals rather than specific policies, many analysts said the elections were not so much about issues as voters' general desire for something new after more than a half century under the Liberal Democrats.

They also noted that although the Democrats promise to change Japan's approach toward its economy and make Tokyo's diplomacy less U.S.-centric, their founders are defectors from the Liberal Democrats and are not likely to present too radical a departure from the country's current path.

The Democrats are proposing toll-free highways, free high schools, income support for farmers, monthly allowances for job seekers in training, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts. The estimated bill comes to 16.8 trillion yen ($179 billion) if fully implemented starting in fiscal year 2013.

Aso — whose own support ratings have sagged to a dismal 20 percent — repeatedly stressed his party led Japan's rise from the ashes of World War II into one of the world's biggest economic powers and are best equipped to get it out of its current morass.

But the current state of the economy has been a major liability for his party.

Last week, the government reported that the unemployment rate for July hit 5.7 percent — the highest level in Japan's post-World War II era — while deflation intensified and families have cut spending because they are insecure about the future.

Making the situation more dire is Japan's rapidly aging demographic — which means more people are on pensions and there is a shrinking pool of taxpayers to support them and other government programs.

Hatoyama's promises to hold off on tax hikes planned by the Liberal Democrats and put more money into consumers' pockets are a sharp contrast with the Liberal Democrats' heavy focus on tax-funded stimulus packages that increase government spending and debt.

Along with his fiscal departures from the Liberal Democrats, Hatoyama said he will rein in the power of the bureaucracy and wants Japan to be more independent from the United States, Tokyo's key trading partner and military ally.

But Hatoyama, who holds a doctorate in engineering from Stanford University, insists he will not seek dramatic change in Japan's foreign policy, saying the U.S.-Japan alliance would "continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy."