Published: 15/09/2009
A pair of rallies scheduled this week should cause concern, and not only to the government, which will have to try to keep them from escalating. The country will not be measurably better off, or even better informed, after a protest near the Cambodian border and another political rally in Bangkok at the weekend.
A pair of rallies scheduled this week should cause concern, and not only to the government, which will have to try to keep them from escalating. The country will not be measurably better off, or even better informed, after a protest near the Cambodian border and another political rally in Bangkok at the weekend.
The yellow shirts seek to take the country backwards, with a demand that the Preah Vihear temple be "returned" to Thailand. The leaders of the red shirts equally want to fire up their supporters to overthrow the government, less than six months after horrendous street violence in Pattaya and Thailand.
The government opposes both rallies, and will have to take some measures to deal with them. Five days before the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) plans to lead its supporters in marches on Government House, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his ministers have made clear they plan to invoke the Internal Security Act (ISA) again and effectively turn over security in inner Bangkok to the military.
The UDD and their red shirt supporters clearly want to taunt the government, and are trying to push PM Abhisit (and his Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban in charge of security) into a corner. Saturday is the third anniversary of the coup which overthrew the red shirts' icon, ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Everyone expects Thaksin to put in a video appearance at the rally. When he did this last April, the result was violence that injured many people. The damage to the economy was incalculable.
The second rally is a little more difficult to fathom. The People's Alliance for Democracy plans to gather on the Thai side of the border with Cambodia near the site of the Preah Vihear temple. The PAD has long used the temple as one of its chief nationalist issues. Last year, when the government of that time appeared ready to help Cambodia gain some support from the United Nations in maintaining the temple site, the yellow shirts pumped the issue up to full volume.
The leaders of the PAD have demanded - last year, and now again - that the government declare it wants to regain control of Preah Vihear. The temple now, of course, is Cambodian. The reason is a binding decision of the World Court more than 47 years ago. Every Thai government since 1962 has, quite properly, followed the international ruling. This time around, the PAD has gone well beyond most previous protests about Preah Vihear. It is not just supporting the Thai position over ownership of a small section of land near the temple. The PAD has filed a court case demanding that the temple be considered on Thai territory.
Re-igniting this dispute after 47 years is a lose-lose situation. For no good reason, the PAD protest seeks to claim the temple from the neighbouring country, with no legal backing, the opposition of the government and no serious moral support from the country. As army officers and government officials told this newspaper last Sunday, the military charged with defending the border fears this protest will spark more tension with Cambodia. In the recent past, this has caused armed conflict and deaths.
The protests show that Thailand has freedom of speech. But neither will achieve the goals of their leaders - to return Thaksin, or to return the Preah Vihear temple.
The threat of violence is clear. The government will have to act to contain both groups, and not allow them to hurt bystanders, the country, nor its international image.
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