Written by DAP NEWS -- Saturday, 26 September 2009
(CAAI News Media)
The gulf between the rosy prognostications of the Cambodian Government and the increasingly somber predictions of international experts has grown in recent days, with the IMF predicting a 2.75 percent contraction in annual real GDP for 2009, while Cambodian Govern- ment officials predicted from a 0.5 percent contraction to a brisk 6 percent increase.
Despite the ongoing global economic crisis (GEC), the Cambodian economy is healthy, Government sources said.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has publicly stated that the Government will strive to reach over 6 percent growth for 2009, though he noted that inflation and the exchange rate presented risks. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) has said it believes GDP will increase 2.1 percent in 2009, significantly higher than the IMF estimate.
Chan Sophal, a well-respected Cambodian economist, said the Cambodian economy is likely to contract 2-3 percent in 2009, similar to the IMF’s prediction.
“If the Cambodian Government wants an increase of 6 percent, they must spend a lot of cash” in subsidies and stimulus, he added.
Cheam Yeap, a Cambodian MP, president of the Economic Council and Auditor of the National Assembly, claimed that Cambodia could see 6 percent growth. He said he was less optimistic about other international economies, “but certainly Cambodia has increased since 2007,” he said.
Other institutions or experts were free to predict whatever they wished for Cambodia, Cheam Yeap continued, claiming that “Cambodia was OK during the serious problems that spread out to the whole world.” He conceded there had been effects on the Cambodian financial sector.
“It can be said that all sectors, including tourism and infrastructure, as well as construction, met some issues too. But the Cambodian Government tried to manage this storm.”
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