By Simon Roughneen in Bangkok for ISN Security Watch
25 Feb 2010
Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra
Politically troubled Thailand faces 'judgment day' tomorrow when the country's Supreme Court rules on what to do with $2.26 billion frozen in former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's family bank accounts, Simon Roughneen comments for ISN Security Watch.
This appears to be the first judicial inquiry into abuse of power to enrich oneself - or ‘policy corruption’ in Thailand, so second guessing such a decision is difficult. But the expectation is that some or all of the one-time telecom entrepreneur's assets will be seized. Others think that some could remain frozen, with a final decision left pending, or that he will be left with whatever he earned prior to holding office as prime minister. We will know on 25 February.
Seizing assets could be the spark for demonstrations along the lines of those that forced the cancellation of an April 2009 summit of Asian leaders in Thailand. These could spark a violent counter-reaction, though the army might prefer to let things drag on rather than crack down too harshly.
The government is massing 20,000 police in the capital in the lead-up to the decision, with Thaksin supporters pledging to demonstrate en masse - even before the verdict is announced. Even without the verdict, the redshirts have vowed to topple the current government, which they view as an illegitimate usurper.
Thailand's Oxford-educated prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva hopes Friday's court ruling will calm the situation and enable Southeast Asia's second-largest economy to get back to normal after four years of violent clashes between Thaksin's supporters and opponents, punctuated by a coup in September 2006.
In recent weeks, the redshirts have been talking in ominous but vague terms about a "people's army," which opponents think is code for arming civilian militias in pro-Thaksin regions close to the Laos and Cambodia borders. The government, too, has been fear-mongering, hyping "10 days of danger" and deploying what jurists regards as Thailand's heavy handed security laws in response to the threats.
A month ago, military vehicles were seen on Bangkok streets, sparking rumors that the army - always influential in the background and perhaps impatient with the political stasis in Thailand - was about to launch a coup.
However, Thaksinites say they are fighting to rid Thailand of the behind-the-scenes power of its military and royalist elites, whom they blame for removing Thaksin from power and preventing his allies from staying in office. They see Abhisit as a puppet of these vested interests, who are now trying to seize Thaksin's money and prevent him and his movement from ever returning to power.
Thaksin-backed parties won elections and held power until just before Christmas 2008, even while he was in exile, and supporters feel aggrieved that his yellowshirt opponents used street power to help push the Thaksin government out, most notoriously blockading the country's international airports in November 2008.
Thaksin's term in office was marked by attempts to centralize power and by allegations that he used politics and bought rural votes to advance personal and business interests. Supporters say he sought to dismantle Thailand's elite-oriented political system and was the first leader to try engage with the country's less well-off. The gap between haves and have-nots is wider in Thailand and wealth more concentrated among a narrow elite than elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
His yellowshirt opponents believe that even if Thaksin's assets are seized, conflict will roll on, and this seems likely.
The political divides in Thailand are bigger than any one person. The political parties and movement, if that is the right word, spawned by Thaksin might outlast him, given that Thais from the north and northeast see themselves as marginalized and disadvantaged, with or without Thaksin. But whether or not Thaksin opponents come to see their grievances as legitimate, and worthy of addressing, remains to be seen.
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