Where will Thaksin end up - literally?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/

via CAAI News Media

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

Published on March 19, 2010

It is clear that this is not the upheaval that Thaksin Shinawatra was hoping for. But what he plans to do next is as foggy as the air in Chiang Mai at the moment. On Wednesday, in the face of setbacks, he was belligerent, asking the dwindling numbers of red shirts at the Phan Fah Bridge to hold on for just one more week, after which, he promised, they would be tasting a sweet victory.

Reports indicated that fresh funds have been shipped in to bolster the sagging campaign. Though most of the protesters came to Bangkok with "pure hearts" - as the organisers have insisted - they still have to eat and support the ones they've left behind. A lot of the red shirts have deserted the rally, and considering the official breakaway of hardliners led by ex-communist Surachai Sae Dan and fugitive Jakrapob Penkair, as well as the backlash of the blood protest, the movement needs urgent and drastic re-engineering.

Though how this will be done is an urgent question, an even more immediate issue has to do with Thaksin's whereabouts. Public and media curiosity aside, his political movement is badly distracted by questions about where he has been and the government's claims that he has been kicked out of the United Arab Emirates.

During his phone-in on Wednesday night, Thaksin vowed to return to the UAE port city of Dubai very soon to prove that the Foreign Ministry was lying. He said he was in Montenegro for business, and photos circulated online yesterday did indeed show him and his children in that country.

So, what has really happened? Without access to flight and immigration records, one can only speculate.

SCENARIO ONE

Here's Thaksin's side of the story: He innocently left Dubai for Montenegro to inspect a hotel renovation after deciding to plunge into property investment there. The trip unfortunately coincided with an earlier Thai government protest to the UAE Embassy that he was using Dubai as a political base to undermine the Bangkok administration.

Loophole: Leaving Dubai for another staggering business investment at a time when his "slave" protesters were sleeping on the streets and shedding blood?

SCENARIO TWO

He has been staying in Cambodia to be in a better position to guide (or command, if you will) the red shirts. The Montenegro photos could be old ones. He wasn't expelled from the UAE and is about to return to rub it in the Foreign Ministry's face.

Loophole: AFP reported Thaksin had been spotted in Montenegro just a few days ago, and later the Montenegrin police confirmed he was there. Nobody has seen him in Cambodia lately.

SCENARIO THREE

The same as Scenario Two, except he came to Cambodia after being booted out of Dubai.

Loophole: He might pop up in Dubai today or tomorrow.

SCENARIO FOUR

A mix of Scenarios One and Two. He had come to Cambodia and, after learning that his location was being compromised (a lot of news reports were speculating that he was in Cambodia), he flew off to Montenegro and pretended to have been there all along. He wasn't expelled by the UAE and is poised to embarrass the Foreign Ministry in a day or two.

Loophole: Nobody has really seen him in Cambodia lately.

SCENARIO FIVE

The same as Scenario Four except he has actually been ousted from Dubai.

Loophole: Nobody has really seen him in Cambodia lately and he has been very defiant about returning to the UAE.

SCENARIO SIX

Doesn't have much to do with where he was, but whether he was really kicked out by the UAE. In this scenario, he was really asked to leave, which explains why he wasn't "quite there" for his followers at the beginning of their most crucial campaign to save him. But according to this scenario he will be able to return to Dubai after lobbying or negotiating with his long-time hosts.

Loophole: Too much diplomatic flip-flopping for comfort.