Friday, 28 January 2011

Recently released market study: Cambodia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2011

via CAAI

Fast Market Research recommends "Cambodia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available

PRLog (Press Release) – Jan 27, 2011 – In our Q111 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BER), Cambodia remains last of the 17 pharmaceutical markets surveyed in the Asia Pacific region. Globally, Cambodia ranks 80th among the 83 countries surveyed, and is considered a more attractive pharmaceutical investment prospect than only Nicaragua, Zimbabwe and Honduras. Given issues with corruption, counterfeit pharmaceuticals political situation and funding pressures within the country, Cambodia is unlikely to rise up the regional matrix in the short to medium term.

On a positive note, there have been some improvements with regard to the presence of counterfeit drugs in Cambodia. Around 65% of the illegal pharmacies operating in Cambodia have been closed as a result of a major anti-counterfeiting operation undertaken by the Cambodian government, according to recent reports by the US Pharmacopeia. Moreover, a new study, published in October 2010, revealed that approximately 3% of drugs sold in licensed outlets in Cambodia are counterfeit, a lower proportion than in previous years. However, despite this lower level of counterfeit drugs, a greater proportion failed quality assessment tests, indicating that efforts to control the issue must continue.

Cambodia's pharmaceutical market was calculated to be worth KHR711bn (US$172mn) in 2009. In 2010, we calculate that pharmaceutical expenditure will reach a value of KHR815bn (US$194mn). BMI forecasts drug consumption to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% in local currency terms, and 11.2% in US dollar terms over the next five years, to reach a value of KHR1,190bn (US$292mn) in 2014. Spending on drugs currently represents over a quarter of total health expenditure, with this proportion expected to continue rising in the coming years, driven by volume rather than value changes. Our long-term forecast is for the market to reach KHR1,925bn (US$481mn) in 2019, equivalent to a CAGR of 10.5% in local currency terms, and 10.8% in US dollar terms over the 10-year period. However, risks are on the downside, given the lack of political and social stability, especially in the face of widespread corruption and - more recently - violations of land rights by government officials.

We believe that the impressive rebound in Cambodian trade exports following the global financial crisis will fade going into 2011. Cambodia's heavy reliance on United States (US) and the European Union (EU) demand indicates a vulnerable trade structure that will be susceptible to a slowdown in external demand in 2011. This will also have an impact on the availability of public finances for the improvement of healthcare services, while international donations may be also stretched by the global slowdown. Forced evictions will, at the same time, increase the number of Cambodians living in poverty, creating political uncertainties in the coming months.

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