Phnom Penh (Cambodia). 06/01/2008: Squatters sleeping in a market. ©John Vink/ MagnumKa-set
08-04-2009
Cambodia is one of the Asian countries most at risk of suffering from the global economic crisis, according to the World Bank’s latest report on the East Asia and Pacific region. The international institution, which initially forecast a 4.9% growth rate for the Cambodian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and was one of the last ones to be uneager to revise predictions downwards, is now announcing recession. GDP should go down by 1% compared to 2008, a year already marked by general slowdown in the Kingdom’s economic activity.
This new prediction is even more negative than those announced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (+1%) and the International Monetary Fund (-0.5%), seen as alarmist by the Cambodian government who officially remains confident about a 6% growth rate.
The World Bank report, which mentions the same causes and effects already emphasised by the IMF (strong dependence on the declining American and European economies, plummeting in garment exports and important drop in foreign investments...), points out, above all, that this recession, if it lasts, will have a direct impact on the poverty of Cambodians. Indeed, the year 2009 might “undo some of the progress Cambodia made towards its Millennium Development Goals, including in reducing poverty”, the World Bank report states.
Cambodia thus appears as one of the Asian countries where the global economic crisis will affect population the most, together with Thailand (-2.7%) and Malaysia (-1%), two other Southeast-Asian countries for which the World Bank forecasts worsening of poverty. Cambodia’s two other neighbours, however, keep a positive growth rate: 5% for Laos and 5.5% for Vietnam.
Yet the World Bank strikes a positive and hopeful note: Cambodia does have “safety nets”, especially concerning food, thanks to its dynamic farming sector. The latter is the only one out of the four pillars of Cambodian economy (together with garment manufacturing, construction and tourism) which should continue with an increasing growth rate... unless a major climate disaster occurs.
08-04-2009
Cambodia is one of the Asian countries most at risk of suffering from the global economic crisis, according to the World Bank’s latest report on the East Asia and Pacific region. The international institution, which initially forecast a 4.9% growth rate for the Cambodian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and was one of the last ones to be uneager to revise predictions downwards, is now announcing recession. GDP should go down by 1% compared to 2008, a year already marked by general slowdown in the Kingdom’s economic activity.
This new prediction is even more negative than those announced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (+1%) and the International Monetary Fund (-0.5%), seen as alarmist by the Cambodian government who officially remains confident about a 6% growth rate.
The World Bank report, which mentions the same causes and effects already emphasised by the IMF (strong dependence on the declining American and European economies, plummeting in garment exports and important drop in foreign investments...), points out, above all, that this recession, if it lasts, will have a direct impact on the poverty of Cambodians. Indeed, the year 2009 might “undo some of the progress Cambodia made towards its Millennium Development Goals, including in reducing poverty”, the World Bank report states.
Cambodia thus appears as one of the Asian countries where the global economic crisis will affect population the most, together with Thailand (-2.7%) and Malaysia (-1%), two other Southeast-Asian countries for which the World Bank forecasts worsening of poverty. Cambodia’s two other neighbours, however, keep a positive growth rate: 5% for Laos and 5.5% for Vietnam.
Yet the World Bank strikes a positive and hopeful note: Cambodia does have “safety nets”, especially concerning food, thanks to its dynamic farming sector. The latter is the only one out of the four pillars of Cambodian economy (together with garment manufacturing, construction and tourism) which should continue with an increasing growth rate... unless a major climate disaster occurs.
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