Market Report, "Cambodia Power Report Q1 2011", published

via CAAI

2011-02-09 05:21:00 - Fast Market Research recommends "Cambodia Power Report Q1 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available

The new Cambodia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.05% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2015, with a supply shortfall that may provide the need for imports from neighbouring countries. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year.

We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.

In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Cambodia's thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 1.9TWh, or 0.03% of the regional total. By 2015 the country is expected to account for 0.04% of thermal generation in the region.

For Cambodia, the direct burning of wood and other organic fuels will have accounted for an estimated 74.7% of 2010 PED, followed by oil at 25.1%. Hydro makes a very small contribution, while coal and gas do not yet feature in the energy mix. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn toe by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Cambodia's estimated 2010 market share of 0.15% is set to rise to 0.18% by 2015. Cambodia's share of hydro generation is expected to rise to 0.11% by 2015.

Cambodia is ranked 16th and last, behind even Taiwan, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, offset by low scores in several other categories. It has the long-term potential to overtake Taiwan and Singapore above it.

BMI forecasts Cambodian real GDP growth averaging 6.4% a year in 2010-2015, with the 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.7%. The population is expected to expand from 15.1mn to 16.4mn by 2015, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase 64% and 106% respectively. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 2.1TWh in 2010 to 4.8TWh in 2015. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a possible shortfall in 2015 supply of 1.1TWh, if generation grows at no more than our assumed average annual rate of 17.8%. There is a clear risk of electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.

In 2010-2020 we forecast an increase in Cambodian electricity generation of 517.0%, which is top of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 159.2% in 2015-2020, up from 138.1% in 2010-2015. PED growth in 2015-2020 is set to remain around the expected 2010-2015 level of 53.9, representing 136.7% for the entire forecast period. Hydro consumption is expected to rise from virtually zero to 7.6TWh between 2010 and 2020, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 116% over the same period. More detailed long-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.