In many ways Thaksin, Hun Sen are political clones

By Sopon Onkgara

The Nation

Published on November 17, 2009

(Posted by CAAI News Media)

IF fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra is predictable in any way, it is that he never admits any wrongdoing. Call it a sense of survival or deniability. It just does not make any difference. In his own view, he is a man who does no wrong.

Shortly after somebody hurled a grenade into the rally site of the People's Alliance for Democracy on Sunday night, causing several injuries, Thaksin wrote on Twitter that he had nothing to do with the act. But nobody had yet to accuse him of anything. It was the purpose of deniability, all the same.

There was something quite odd about the content of his denial. He was profusely forceful in the message that such an act should be condemned, and that he professed a peaceful path in dealing with conflicts. Such comments are alien to the nature of a man who made rousing speeches instigating red shirts to create havoc in Bangkok during the last Songkran festival.

Or is it because he does not want Thais to forget him so quickly that he must get himself in the news by whatever means? Of course, nobody would imagine that it was his hand that triggered the attack after jetting away from Cambodian soil a day earlier.

His habits show. Thaksin is a man who sees an opportunity in any crisis. The number of people killed or injured by whatever cause won't trouble his conscience, judging from the thousands of victims murdered by the police during his "war against drugs" several years ago.

In that "war", he claimed heroic deeds were done, though many of the victims were killed mercilessly and without recourse to justice. Investigations moving at a snail's pace have yielded nothing substantive, failing to punish any culprits.

But the crisis Thaksin has created in souring relations between Thailand and Cambodia continues to raise doubts as to the consequences. Big bully Hun Sen still enjoys one-upmanship when he deals with Prime Minister Abhisit. It's like a cat and mouse game, and he knows well that he looks like a villain in the eyes of the international community.

Why did Thaksin leave in a hurry despite his earlier hints that he might stay on for a few more days in Cambodia? The country serves as a safe refuge despite a Thai request for his extradition to serve his two-year jail term.

He must have sensed something quite eerie during his presence. The boastful style, being Mr Know All in giving a lecture on "Thaksinomics" for 300-plus Cambodian economic planners and businessmen - failed to make a positive impression on the doubting Cambodians, who have never trusted Thais during our long and sometimes bitter history.

Thaksin might not be sure that Hun Sen still has a firm control now that the conflict with Thailand has escalated and that Cambodian people stand to suffer - especially if the border is closed. With casinos counting less revenue from Thai gamblers, the financial fortunes of Hun Sen also dwindle.

Surely not all the smiles directed at Thaksin during his stay as an adviser to the Cambodian government were genuine. The Cambodians too know the art of hiding long fangs; they went through a long and bloody civil war when they murdered one another in the killing fields. That brutality ranks not far behind the Nazi holocaust.

Some Cambodians such as Sam Rainsy view Thaksin as an opportunist who likes to fish in somebody else's pond and troubled waters if he can make some money. The opposition leader had his parliamentary privilege revoked yesterday, and that will cause more resentment towards Hun Sen among Cambodians.

Deep in his heart, Thaksin realises that he is the cause of these worsening diplomatic ties. Hun Sen took the matter personally due to the stake he has with Thaksin in oil and gas ventures offshore, and other spoils they intend to share. Cambodia will be a land of opportunity for Thaksin unless the people rise against the village tyrant who has ruled the country for 24 years.

By leaving Phnom Penh, Thaksin can at least focus on his own increasing troubles resulting from his miscalculations in his continuing attempt to regain political power. His setback after giving a damaging interview to TimesOnline can never be amended. It is best, therefore, to let Hun Sen sort out his own problems with Thailand.

After tallying the score, the two friends in deed should find that they share a mutual loss in all regards, with hardly any recognition left in the international community. There is nowhere to go but down. It's just a matter of sooner or later.

Hun Sen is the Robert Mugabe of Asia, and Thaksin can never dream of being Nelson Mandela, as he likes to portray himself. Both are just partners in crime. In some negative views, they are just common crooks and criminals with self-perceived class.