Monday, 28 July 2008

Outmanoeuvred at every turn

The Bangkok Post
By Achara Ashayagachat

The government has been caught on its back foot over the Preah Vihear temple. The international community has neither sympathy nor pity, and a change of mindset may now be necessary.

Today's election in Cambodia will surely end peacefully with a landslide triumph for Samdech Akka Moha Sena Padei Techo Hun Sen. With a 23 year tenure, the 56-year-old Hun Sen will maintain the status of the second longest-serving leader in Southeast Asia, just one year less than the Sultan of Brunei.

The senior regional leader has agreed to a request from the six-month premier from Thailand, Samak Sundaravej, to allow a ministerial-level talk to diffuse the tensions over the Preah Vihear temple controversy, and to temporarily withdraw a request that the UN Security Council (UNSC) hold an urgent meeting on the military standoff with Thailand over the matter.

The frenzy over the Preah Vihear temple conflict might be frozen for a while, but Thai domestic politics will probably not cool down accordingly.

As noted by a veteran Thai diplomat with experience in boundary negotiations, "This is not a military battle, but psychological warfare that will not be easily soothed."

But another diplomat was optimistic that the meeting tomorrow between Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Nam Hong and new Thai Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag in Siem Reap would help deflate the tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border.

A historian by education and a seasoned career diplomat, Tej is His Majesty the King's deputy principal private secretary and former permanent secretary for foreign affairs.

He is also chairman of the Thai-Cambodian Friendship Association, which was set up in 2003.

According to the Phnom Penh-based Thai diplomat, tomorrow's meeting may not solve the complicated boundary controversy, but the face-to-face talks should dust off some political tensions and show the world that Thailand is always ready for talks and has never meant to resort to the use of force.

What he didn't say is that no one wants to see a replay of the 2003 torching of the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh by angry Cambodian mobs stirred into a nationalistic frenzy.

Sane and mindful persons know very well that if the Thai-Cambodian conflict over the Preah Vihear issue is not well-contained, the spill-over might be protracted and undermine social, economic and cultural cooperation between the two countries.

Ultra-nationalistic rhetoric, sometimes blossoming into action, is already being seen on both sides.

For example, some Thais are now calling for the entire temple complex to be handed over to Thailand despite a lack of legal grounds for such a move, while their Khmer counterparts are currently calling for a boycott of all Thai products and urging overseas Cambodians around the globe to engage in anti-Thai actions wherever possible.

The longstanding dispute between Cambodia and Thailand over the ownership of the temple grounds at Preah Vihear has continued to gain momentum since the World Heritage Committee endorsed, two weeks ago in Quebec, the listing of the 11th century Hindu temple as a Cambodian World Heritage Site.

Thailand tried to object to Cambodia's unilateral move on the grounds that the area submitted for the site included areas claimed by Thailand.

On May 22, the two sides agreed that Cambodia could submit its application as long as it only included the temple site itself and not any of the surrounding area. This was later stated in the controversial joint communique between then Thai foreign minister Noppadon Pattama and Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An, which was later annulled by the Thai Constitutional Court and caused the resignation of Mr Noppadon.

On July 15, three Thai protesters entered the temple site. Later that day, Cambodia claimed that some 40 Thai troops had passed briefly into their territory. On July 16, Thailand confirmed that it had deployed some 150 soldiers within the disputed area, but denied that any were situated within Cambodian territory. Thailand also accused Cambodia of having allowed some of its citizens to establish a permanent village within the temple complex.

All this seems to have brought about a true sense of fear in Cambodia. It is believed in Phnom Penh that the anger in Bangkok over what many see as a surrender of Thai territory is so strong that the Thai government might be forced into some unusual action. That's why the Cambodian leadership has been seeking multilateral assistance in resolving the issue, said the Phnom Penh-based diplomat.

Phnom Penh has successfully portrayed the deployment of Thai troops as an imminent threat to Cambodia, evoking the image of a bigger nation trying to bully a small nation after it lost fair and square in the WHC's decision in Quebec. This is perhaps the natural perception for the international community to adopt.

While it is a diplomatic triumph for Phnom Penh , it is a failure for Bangkok, around the world, as well as closer to home at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

Cambodia has charged Thailand with aggression of its sovereign space in as many available forums as possible. For example, besides requesting the intervention of the UNSC, Phnom Penh-based Chinese and Vietnamese officials were flown to the disputed area on July 19, together with local media.

Thailand countered by inviting Bangkok-based UNSC members for an explanation of the deployment of some 150 soldiers following the sit-in protest by the three Thai protesters, and reiterated the claim that Cambodia had allowed some of its people to establish a permanent village within the temple complex.

Bangkok succeeded last Tuesday, at least temporarily, in blocking Phnom Penh's effort to ask for Asean intervention, saying that bilateral diplomatic efforts have yet to be exhausted.
Yet, the Thai-Cambodian stand-off was discussed during last Thursday's meeting in Singapore of the 27-member security group at the 41st Asean Ministerial Meeting (AMM), along with Burma.

Weak Internal Politics

It is clear that Thailand's reputation cannot afford a launch of military force over the Preah Vihear issue, and diplomatic options are limited as well because Bangkok's list of friends in the international arena has diminished in recent years.

The loss of diplomatic clout is not merely derived from the September 2006 coup, but stems from an adamant and aggressive foreign policy during the Thaksin I and II administrations, aggravated by the off-guard Samak government.

Thai stature in the international arena has also been staggering because of non-directional domestic politics.

We are now in a crucial period of soul-searching - a defining moment that badly needs the earliest possible conclusion.

Outspoken Democrat party member Kasit Piromya, also a former ambassador to the US, recently said Thailand should not lose faith in the midst of diplomatic failure since the country has done nothing wrong. In his opinion the root cause of all the unrest is former prime minister Thaksin's alleged collusion with the Cambodian leadership - a trade of economic interests for Thai sovereignty, through the hand of the Samak government.

Sunait Chutintaranond, director of Chulalongkorn University's Institute of East Asian Studies remarked that the nationalism provoked around the Preah Vihear incident was in fact predictable.

Elaborating, he said Thai people from all walks of life felt rage and loss at the way things had turned out, due partly to a sense of superiority over their Khmer neighbours, and also an emotional response that Cambodia had treated the Thai nation badly after Thailand had done quite a lot for Cambodia over the years. People are thinking, "Why are they doing this to us?"

"It's a similar sentiment as when long-time ally the US did not come to Thailand's rescue after the 1997 financial crisis," said the historian.

He remarked that the international community is not poised to sympathise or extend pity to Thailand. He suggested a change of mindset and launching counter movements.

Former Thai ambassador to the UN Asda Jayanama said Thailand should not take any aggressive actions, but employ only mature measures in a situation like this, and respond step by step to Cambodia's tactical moves.

Kasit urged the Thai public not to lose sight of the goal, and change the current leadership of the country so that a new administration could revoke or annul the June 18 joint communique and refresh the finesse of Thai diplomacy, which he believes has lost substantial ground under the two Thaksin administrations, as well as the current administration. He suggested a focus on trade-offs and economic-oriented diplomacy.

A Third Way

But is echoing the rhetoric used by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) really going to do anything to solve the bitter bilateral dispute? Or, asks historian Charnvit Kasetsiri, would the Preah Vihear saga be the last act before calamity descends in Thai domestic politics?

Mr Charnvit, along with many colleagues from Thammasat University's Southeast Asian Studies Programme, Faculty of Liberal Arts, has sent an open letter in Thai, English and Khmer to people in both nations expressing support of the ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on June 15, 1962 at The Hague, Netherlands which said sovereignty over the Preah Vihear belongs to Cambodia.

The academics wrote that the recent border dispute has led to a series of highly emotional protests, and these tensions are fostering the domestic manipulation of Thailand's already precarious political situation, leading to a situation of unwarranted hostility among various interest groups in the country.

The letter said this border dispute is related to issues rooted in the historical and cultural legacies of Thailand and Cambodia . Any claims made or interpretations put forth about this issue should be grounded in the historical evidence, for the sake of good bilateral relations.

Vigorous debate over the contentious issues should also be commended, but competing opinions should not be used as a means to exploit political interests which may cause prejudice and antagonism between neighbouring countries, and may even lead to open warfare.

The academics also called for recognition from both peoples of the historical and cultural communalities to serve as the foundation of international cooperation and fraternity, particularly in the face of increasing challenges to all countries in the region posed by globalisation.

Another working diplomat noted that Thailand should not act unreasonably in this dispute by calling for a return of the World Heritage-listed Preah Vihear Temple to the Thai ownership.

Meanwhile, Sunait was not ready to throw in the towel. He suggested that in spite of the reeling within the Foreign Ministry after Mr Noppadon resigned, Thailand has to stand up and try to gather local and foreign experts to undertake massive counter-measures.

"Cambodia is a good strategist and it has shown unity in launching its international moves to list the Preah Vihear temple, without even having to argue its archaeological and artistic merits.

Their steps have been clear, and they were patient until their goal was achieved," said the associate professor of history at Chulalongkorn University s Faculty of Arts.

He urged the Thai government to show the same wisdom in its Preah Vihear strategy.

"We can do the same, and must act now," Sunait said. He suggested that a government-sponsored English-language watchdog website managed by academics and media strategists should be set up as soon as possible to provide necessary information to the world on the 1962 ICJ interpretation, the debate of the World Heritage status given to Preah Vihear, boundary negotiations, etc. Sunait added that a Thai-language version should also be initiated.

He also saw a desperate need for coordination among concerned agencies here and abroad, together with strong political support.

But whether the embattled Samak government is prepared to abandon its current unfathomable approach and take advice from either Charnvit or Sunait is far from clear.

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