Asia Times Online
Jul 29, 2008
By Geoffrey Cain
PHNOM PENH - With surging double-digit economic growth and a territorial dispute with Thailand whipping up Khmer nationalism, Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodia's People's Party (CPP) rode both to a landslide election victory on Sunday, securing another five years in power for one of Asia's longest serving political leaders.
The CPP has claimed to have secured between 88 and 91 of the National Assembly's 123 seats, up from the 73 seats it won at the 2003 polls and likely cinching the party's ability to form a one-party government. A recently amended law previously required a two-thirds majority to form a government, which led to unwieldy coalitions and intense political infighting. (See From chaos to order in Cambodia, Asia Times Online, January 4, 2007).
Now, a party needs only 50% plus one of parliament's seats to form a government. Unlike previous Cambodian polls, including the 1998 elections which were marred with political violence and intimidation, local and international election monitors viewed Sunday's polls as in the main free and fair. There were over 13,000 election monitors on watch and most maintained the polls were the most democratic since the United Nations-brokered 1993 polls. Official results will be released later this week.
That assessment overlooked the CPP's dominance of the broadcast media, from where many rural Cambodians receive their news, as well as the unresolved shooting murder of an opposition-aligned journalist, who had reported favorably on the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and hyper-critically of Hun Sen's government in the run-up to the polls. The Ministry of Information also shut down on questionable legal grounds a SRP-supportive radio station and the SRP has alleged that thousands of names were mysteriously deleted from voter lists in the capital, where the SRP outpaced the CPP in 2003.
Hun Sen, 56, was so confident in his party's success that he took a leave from the campaign trail in the weeks before the polls, saying he did not want to give the opposition any opportunities to slander him. More controversially, his government recently stopped releasing official monthly inflation figures after consumer prices rose 18.7% year on year in January, with prices of staples such as rice up as much as 80%.
With the CPP's sweeping win, the previous coalition between the CPP and royalist Funcinpec party is likely finished. The CPP's co-ruling party from 1993 until today, and the victim of a bloody Hun Sen-led coup in 1997, the internally fractured party secured only one seat at the polls compared to the 26 it won at the last election. The liberal and outspoken SRP, now the CPP's main political opponent, is believed to have won around 40 seats, considerably more than the 24 it notched in 2003.
The CPP's political consolidation was in evidence even before the polls, including a sweeping win at last year's commune elections. Only 10 opposition parties contested the general elections, a substantial drop-off from the 22 that part in 2003. A new era of one-party rule is now in the offing, despite Hun Sen's already consecutive 23 years in power, first as Vietnam-backed premier, now as a capitalist reformer.
Many now wonder whether Hun Sen will attempt to leverage his power monopoly to the same authoritarian ends witnessed until recently in Malaysia and still in Singapore. With a strong and internationally recognized electoral mandate, Hun Sen can now pursue his reform agenda almost unopposed.
The CPP has benefited enormously from the country's recent economic growth surge, which hit 10.5% last year. Foreign investment, including huge outlays from China, is flooding into the country, in part due to the CPP-led government's recent liberalization and promotion efforts, including plans to open a stock market by next year. The World Bank in April commended his government on various reform measures, specifically moves to decentralize more administrative power from the center to the periphery.
Resurgent nationalism
Some of those gains could be lost to a resurgent nationalism, some fear. It's yet to be seen if Hun Sen's new government will abandon its nationalistic response to the recent controversy surrounding the Preah Vihear temple, which this month was awarded United Nations World Heritage status but also brought Cambodia into a war of words with Thailand over unresolved territorial issues around the shrine.
On the campaign trail, Hun Sen and CPP leaders played the temple's listing as a victory over Thailand, including through chest-thumping, nationalistic speeches and fireworks displays for cheering crowds at the national stadium in Phnom Penh. The issue was strategically deployed by the CPP to divert attention from tougher electoral issues, including rising inflation, alleged CPP-ordered land grabs and charges of corruption.
However, the recent build-up of troops and military equipment in the contested border areas has threatened to spill over into a wider conflict, one that would undoubtedly hurt the Cambodian economy. Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has predicted the issue would cool after the Cambodian elections, though anti-government forces in Bangkok have also escalated it to undermine his beleaguered administration.
Another big test will be Hun Sen's handling of growing land disputes, an issue which has pitted rich versus poor, and to a lesser degree, foreign versus national, in the rapidly developing country. That's particularly true in the capital Phnom Penh, where the SRP notably fared best at the polls and the issue has most visibility. In one campaign speech, the premier derided activists critical of the CPP's handling of land issues, saying if the government takes land from the rich they will only get angry and initiate conflict. Therefore, the best action is no action, he said.
On other occasions, he dispensed of a seemingly contradictory line, claiming the government actively enforces land laws against corrupt land grabbers. That particular comment was in response to a reporter's question about a 2007 Global Witness Report on illegal logging in Cambodia, which alleged the premier and his close accomplices were personally involved in illegal land concessions.
The government's land management policies are crucial to foreign investment, which has been the main engine behind recent growth rates and led the way in the building spree now underway in Phnom Penh and other areas of the country. The Cambodian Investment Board has recently predicted foreign investment will double to US$2.7 billion year on year. In particular, deep-pocketed Chinese investors have eyed Cambodia's untapped natural resources and have initiated various major development projects in the power-starved countryside.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wen Jiabao recently pledged $1 billion in energy aid which has now materialized into two major dam projects but which also will displace thousands of rural residents. South Korean investment in building up Phnom Penh's skyline, including the construction of Gold Tower 42 and the International Finance Complex, is another major political push for the CPP but has also entailed the forced removal of hundreds of urban slum dwellers.
The CPP has also granted lucrative foreign concessions for tourism development at Sihanoukville, including resort concessions to Russian, Chinese and Australian interests. How Hun Sen uses his new democratic mandate to balance foreign and local interests will not only decide how his CPP fares at the next polls, but also will go a long way in determining his final legacy as a strongman leader.
Jul 29, 2008
By Geoffrey Cain
PHNOM PENH - With surging double-digit economic growth and a territorial dispute with Thailand whipping up Khmer nationalism, Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodia's People's Party (CPP) rode both to a landslide election victory on Sunday, securing another five years in power for one of Asia's longest serving political leaders.
The CPP has claimed to have secured between 88 and 91 of the National Assembly's 123 seats, up from the 73 seats it won at the 2003 polls and likely cinching the party's ability to form a one-party government. A recently amended law previously required a two-thirds majority to form a government, which led to unwieldy coalitions and intense political infighting. (See From chaos to order in Cambodia, Asia Times Online, January 4, 2007).
Now, a party needs only 50% plus one of parliament's seats to form a government. Unlike previous Cambodian polls, including the 1998 elections which were marred with political violence and intimidation, local and international election monitors viewed Sunday's polls as in the main free and fair. There were over 13,000 election monitors on watch and most maintained the polls were the most democratic since the United Nations-brokered 1993 polls. Official results will be released later this week.
That assessment overlooked the CPP's dominance of the broadcast media, from where many rural Cambodians receive their news, as well as the unresolved shooting murder of an opposition-aligned journalist, who had reported favorably on the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and hyper-critically of Hun Sen's government in the run-up to the polls. The Ministry of Information also shut down on questionable legal grounds a SRP-supportive radio station and the SRP has alleged that thousands of names were mysteriously deleted from voter lists in the capital, where the SRP outpaced the CPP in 2003.
Hun Sen, 56, was so confident in his party's success that he took a leave from the campaign trail in the weeks before the polls, saying he did not want to give the opposition any opportunities to slander him. More controversially, his government recently stopped releasing official monthly inflation figures after consumer prices rose 18.7% year on year in January, with prices of staples such as rice up as much as 80%.
With the CPP's sweeping win, the previous coalition between the CPP and royalist Funcinpec party is likely finished. The CPP's co-ruling party from 1993 until today, and the victim of a bloody Hun Sen-led coup in 1997, the internally fractured party secured only one seat at the polls compared to the 26 it won at the last election. The liberal and outspoken SRP, now the CPP's main political opponent, is believed to have won around 40 seats, considerably more than the 24 it notched in 2003.
The CPP's political consolidation was in evidence even before the polls, including a sweeping win at last year's commune elections. Only 10 opposition parties contested the general elections, a substantial drop-off from the 22 that part in 2003. A new era of one-party rule is now in the offing, despite Hun Sen's already consecutive 23 years in power, first as Vietnam-backed premier, now as a capitalist reformer.
Many now wonder whether Hun Sen will attempt to leverage his power monopoly to the same authoritarian ends witnessed until recently in Malaysia and still in Singapore. With a strong and internationally recognized electoral mandate, Hun Sen can now pursue his reform agenda almost unopposed.
The CPP has benefited enormously from the country's recent economic growth surge, which hit 10.5% last year. Foreign investment, including huge outlays from China, is flooding into the country, in part due to the CPP-led government's recent liberalization and promotion efforts, including plans to open a stock market by next year. The World Bank in April commended his government on various reform measures, specifically moves to decentralize more administrative power from the center to the periphery.
Resurgent nationalism
Some of those gains could be lost to a resurgent nationalism, some fear. It's yet to be seen if Hun Sen's new government will abandon its nationalistic response to the recent controversy surrounding the Preah Vihear temple, which this month was awarded United Nations World Heritage status but also brought Cambodia into a war of words with Thailand over unresolved territorial issues around the shrine.
On the campaign trail, Hun Sen and CPP leaders played the temple's listing as a victory over Thailand, including through chest-thumping, nationalistic speeches and fireworks displays for cheering crowds at the national stadium in Phnom Penh. The issue was strategically deployed by the CPP to divert attention from tougher electoral issues, including rising inflation, alleged CPP-ordered land grabs and charges of corruption.
However, the recent build-up of troops and military equipment in the contested border areas has threatened to spill over into a wider conflict, one that would undoubtedly hurt the Cambodian economy. Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has predicted the issue would cool after the Cambodian elections, though anti-government forces in Bangkok have also escalated it to undermine his beleaguered administration.
Another big test will be Hun Sen's handling of growing land disputes, an issue which has pitted rich versus poor, and to a lesser degree, foreign versus national, in the rapidly developing country. That's particularly true in the capital Phnom Penh, where the SRP notably fared best at the polls and the issue has most visibility. In one campaign speech, the premier derided activists critical of the CPP's handling of land issues, saying if the government takes land from the rich they will only get angry and initiate conflict. Therefore, the best action is no action, he said.
On other occasions, he dispensed of a seemingly contradictory line, claiming the government actively enforces land laws against corrupt land grabbers. That particular comment was in response to a reporter's question about a 2007 Global Witness Report on illegal logging in Cambodia, which alleged the premier and his close accomplices were personally involved in illegal land concessions.
The government's land management policies are crucial to foreign investment, which has been the main engine behind recent growth rates and led the way in the building spree now underway in Phnom Penh and other areas of the country. The Cambodian Investment Board has recently predicted foreign investment will double to US$2.7 billion year on year. In particular, deep-pocketed Chinese investors have eyed Cambodia's untapped natural resources and have initiated various major development projects in the power-starved countryside.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wen Jiabao recently pledged $1 billion in energy aid which has now materialized into two major dam projects but which also will displace thousands of rural residents. South Korean investment in building up Phnom Penh's skyline, including the construction of Gold Tower 42 and the International Finance Complex, is another major political push for the CPP but has also entailed the forced removal of hundreds of urban slum dwellers.
The CPP has also granted lucrative foreign concessions for tourism development at Sihanoukville, including resort concessions to Russian, Chinese and Australian interests. How Hun Sen uses his new democratic mandate to balance foreign and local interests will not only decide how his CPP fares at the next polls, but also will go a long way in determining his final legacy as a strongman leader.
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